Build plausible futures using structured frameworks
Different scenarios require different approaches. Select the framework that best fits your strategic planning needs and time constraints.
Explore probable, plausible, and possible futures by mapping different trajectory scenarios.
When you need to explore multiple future possibilities and their likelihood
Map four distinct scenarios using two critical uncertainties as axes.
When you have two key uncertainties that will shape the future
Map transformation pathways from current state to preferred future.
When planning organizational or system transformation
| Method | Time Required | Complexity | Output | Best Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cone of Plausibility | 60-90 min | Intermediate | 3-4 detailed scenarios + timeline | When you need to explore multiple future possibilities and their likelihood |
2×2 Matrix | 30-45 min | Beginner | 4 quadrant scenarios + signals | When you have two key uncertainties that will shape the future |
Three Horizons | 45-75 min | Advanced | Transformation roadmap + actions | When planning organizational or system transformation |
Scenario planning works best with diverse perspectives. Use the 30/30/30 format: 30 minutes for individual prep, 30 minutes for group discussion, 30 minutes for synthesis.
Start with pre-work to introduce the framework and gather initial inputs. Share back findings to build organizational learning and buy-in.